A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
